Milliman study finds FICO Score 10T tops VantageScore 4.0 in mortgage default prediction

Fair Isaac Corporation

Fair Isaac Corporation

FICO

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  • Fair Isaac highlighted an independent Milliman study finding FICO Score 10T most predictive for mortgage default risk across U.S. originations from 2011-2023, outperforming VantageScore 4.0 in a sample of nearly 20 million loans.
  • Performance gap was widest in FHA lending, where FICO Score 10T outperformed by more than 8%, signaling larger risk separation in a segment tied closely to first-time homebuyers.
  • Advantage widened in newer vintages, with outperformance of 7.4% in 2023 GSE loans versus 3.4% in 2018, indicating stronger differentiation as defaults rise in more recent cohorts.
  • FICO Score 10T uses trended credit data, incorporating rental payment information when present, positioning it as a higher-signal underwriting input as lenders prepare for credit score modernization.
  • Adoption push includes a free-access testing program alongside Classic FICO, with more than 55 lenders signed up covering $557 billion in originations and $1.6 trillion in servicing portfolios.


Disclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies (PUBT) using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. Fair Isaac Corporation published the original content used to generate this news brief via Business Wire (Ref. ID: 20260504146594) on May 04, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein.