MINISO Group Holding has had a weak run so far in 2026, with the stock down 34.1% year to date, yet its valuation checks currently lean cheap and suggest the recent share price performance may not fully reflect the fundamentals.

• The 34.1% year to date decline raises the question of whether sentiment has moved faster than any change in the business outlook.
• Future store expansion and product mix can support revenue and cash flow over time, while any pressure on margins or slower same store trends may limit how much value investors are willing to ascribe to that growth.
• MINISO Group Holding screens as undervalued on the broader checks, with the company passing 6 out of 6 valuation tests on our framework.

The issue now is whether the current share price already reflects these risks, or if MINISO Group Holding still offers a clear valuation cushion for new capital.

Does MINISO Group Holding Look Undervalued on Earnings?

The P/E ratio is a useful metric for MINISO Group Holding because earnings are a key driver of how investors typically assess established retailers. On this measure, the stock trades at about 12.8x earnings, which is well below the Multiline Retail industry average of roughly 19.9x and below the broader peer group at about 28.1x. This suggests the market is applying a noticeable discount to MINISO Group Holding compared with many listed retail peers.

A more tailored assessment that blends factors such as scale, margins and risk points to a fair P/E closer to 19.7x for MINISO Group Holding. Relative to that benchmark, the current 12.8x level indicates the stock is priced at a sizeable discount to what this framework would imply, even after accounting for sector specific considerations.

On the P/E multiple, MINISO Group Holding stock appears undervalued relative to both peers and a more customised fair value ratio.

The MINISO Group Holding Narrative: What Would Justify Today's Price?

To make sense of why MINISO Group Holding's valuation looks out of step with peers, Simply Wall St Narratives has set out the specific earnings, growth and margin paths that would need to play out for the stock to be worth meaningfully more or less than today’s price. These narratives are available on the company’s Community page. Each narrative links its figures to a clear view on how MINISO Group Holding's growth, profitability and risks could evolve, which you can revisit as new information emerges.

One of the top community narratives on MINISO Group Holding: 50% undervalued

"The primary catalyst is the aggressive and ongoing expansion of its store network, both in China and, more significantly, in overseas markets..."

Do you think there's more to the story for MINISO Group Holding? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

The Bottom Line

For MINISO Group Holding, the core question is whether the current discount on its P/E multiple persists or closes over time. The stock screens as undervalued on the market multiple checks, yet the market is clearly cautious about how earnings quality, margins and store economics will hold up. The crux for investors is whether MINISO Group Holding can sustain attractive profitability as it expands, which would support a higher multiple, or whether the current discount is a fair reflection of execution and margin risk.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.