Shareholders of MNTN, Inc. (NYSE:MNTN) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 19% to US$10.99 following its latest quarterly results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$83m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 51% to hit US$0.09 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on MNTN after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for MNTN from ten analysts is for revenues of US$352.1m in 2026. If met, it would imply a meaningful 12% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 2.6% to US$0.74 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$352.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.91 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 6.0% to US$18.80, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values MNTN at US$26.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$13.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the MNTN's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that MNTN's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 26% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 21% over the past year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.8% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that MNTN is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for MNTN. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of MNTN's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple MNTN analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.