• In the first quarter of 2026, Moderna reported revenue of US$389 million versus US$108 million a year earlier, alongside a net loss of US$1.34 billion and basic loss per share of US$3.40, while also disclosing that it completed a US$1.34 billion share repurchase program launched in 2022.
• Alongside these results, Moderna’s publication of positive late-stage data for its mRNA-1010 flu vaccine and early-stage success in a hantavirus vaccine program underpins how its mRNA platform is being applied beyond COVID-19 into broader infectious disease markets.
• We’ll now examine how Moderna’s positive Phase 3 flu data and expanding infectious disease pipeline may reshape the previously cautious investment narrative.

Find 51 companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

Moderna Investment Narrative Recap

To own Moderna today, you have to believe its mRNA platform can broaden beyond COVID-19 into large, sustainable vaccine markets while the company manages heavy losses and revenue volatility. The latest flu and hantavirus data speak directly to that diversification story, while Q1 2026’s US$389 million revenue against a US$1.34 billion net loss underlines that the biggest near term catalyst is regulatory progress on mRNA-1010, and the biggest risk remains prolonged unprofitability if new products stall.

Among recent announcements, the publication of Phase 3 data showing Moderna’s mRNA-1010 flu vaccine outperforming a standard-dose shot in adults over 50 is most relevant. With an FDA decision targeted for August 5, 2026 and filings under review in Europe, Canada, and Australia, this program sits at the center of the near term story: if approved, it could help reduce dependence on COVID-19 vaccines, but any regulatory delay would reinforce concerns about earnings pressure.

Yet behind this progress, investors should also be aware of growing legal and pricing pressures that could...

Moderna’s narrative projects $3.2 billion revenue and $407.1 million earnings by 2029. This requires 17.9% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $3.2 billion from -$2.8 billion today.

Uncover how Moderna's forecasts yield a $46.10 fair value, a 5% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the most pessimistic analysts, who were assuming only about 6 percent annual revenue growth and continued losses, worry that legal and pricing pressures could outweigh Moderna’s recent flu and hantavirus wins; as a shareholder you should recognize how far views can differ and consider how these new data might eventually reshape both the cautious and the more skeptical narratives.

Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Moderna - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Reach Your Own Conclusion

Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

• A great starting point for your Moderna research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Moderna research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Moderna's overall financial health at a glance.

Curious About Other Options?

The market won't wait. These fast-moving stocks are hot now. Grab the list before they run:

• The latest GPUs need a type of rare earth metal called Terbium and there are only 33 companies in the world exploring or producing it. Find the list for free.
• The future of work is here. Discover the 32 top robotics and automation stocks leading the charge in AI-driven automation and industrial transformation.
• AI is about to change healthcare. These 35 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10b in market cap - there's still time to get in early.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.