Momentum Global says missing April’s 9.6% rally slashes long-run MSCI World returns

  • Momentum Global Investment Management analysis flagged April 2026 as an unusually strong month for global equities, with MSCI World up 9.6% for calendar month total return, ranking 11th out of 52 years of monthly results and placing in 98th percentile.
  • Report warned return distribution is not normal, citing a fat left tail that raises probability of outsized monthly losses; worst month in period was October 2008 with a 19% drop, exceeding October 1987’s 17% fall.
  • Note argued market-timing risk remains high, estimating investors who missed April’s gain plus 10 best months over 52 years would have cut cumulative return since May 1974 to about 4,000% from 12,700% under buy-and-hold.
  • Macro backdrop highlighted inflation risk tied to an energy shock from geopolitical tensions, with oil above USD 100 per barrel cited as pressuring yields and reducing expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts.


Disclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies (PUBT) using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. Momentum Global Investment Management Ltd. published the original content used to generate this news brief on May 11, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein.