Momentum says markets price nearly 40 bps of Fed rate hikes by end-2026

  • Momentum Global Investment Management flagged a hawkish shift in US rate pricing, with OIS implying nearly 40 bps of hikes by end-2026.
  • Markets started 2026 pricing roughly 60 bps of cuts, then reversed as Middle East tensions lifted inflation risks via supply-chain disruption.
  • Fed projections drove the move, with half of 18 officials indicating rate hikes by year-end, lifting market-implied policy rates.
  • Stronger-than-expected May US labor data reduced urgency for cuts, giving the Fed more scope to prioritize inflation.
  • Higher-rate expectations could pressure mega-cap growth valuations, improve fixed-income relative appeal, support the dollar, and weigh on multinationals’ translated earnings.


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