Morgan Stanley Expansion Capital says global M&A deal value rises 17% YTD despite volatility

  • Morgan Stanley Expansion Capital’s 2026 midyear outlook flagged a resilient M&A rebound despite higher macro volatility tied to a Mideast war.
  • Global announced M&A deal value rose 17% year-to-date, extending 2025’s 44% surge.
  • Private equity buyout deal value stayed flat to slightly down, with PE participation in total deal activity dropping below 31%.
  • Mega-deals by strategic buyers drove gains, while middle-market volumes grew only modestly amid rate sensitivity and a pause in Fed cuts.
  • Late-stage “unicorn” funding shifted sharply, with companies at six-plus VC rounds taking 74% of proceeds versus a 25% 10-year average.


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