Global wealth managers are quietly reshaping their business models as clients look beyond traditional markets and into private assets, cross border advice and more specialised solutions. The recent shift at Baillie Gifford toward higher growth regions and private companies is a reminder that the firms most exposed to these trends may see their opportunity set change meaningfully, for better or worse. This article looks at three stocks that sit squarely in the path of these forces and are directly exposed to the same news catalysts, to help you decide which business models might deserve a closer look or a wider margin of caution.

Morgan Stanley (MS)

Overview: Morgan Stanley is a global financial services company that helps governments, institutions and individuals raise capital, invest their money and manage their wealth through its Institutional Securities, Wealth Management and Investment Management segments.

Operations: Morgan Stanley generates most of its US$108.2b revenue from Institutional Securities at US$34.5b and Wealth Management at US$33.0b, with Investment Management contributing US$6.5b and smaller offsets from intersegment eliminations.

Market Cap: US$337.4b

Morgan Stanley sits at the heart of the shift Baillie Gifford is leaning into, with a large wealth platform focused on US and Asia, deep private market access and growing alternatives like private credit and infrastructure funds. Recent moves into digital assets custody and low cost crypto ETFs, plus wider access to its PMAX private markets range, show how the firm is trying to meet clients where new capital is flowing. A sizeable buyback and dividend uplift highlight confidence in its balance sheet. On the other hand, rising competition from passive products, heavy reliance on wealth fees and high non cash earnings keep risk firmly on the table, which is why this business model deserves a closer look.

Morgan Stanley’s wealth engine sits at the intersection of private markets, crypto access and fee risk, and the real story only appears once you line those pieces up against the 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs (1 is major!)

Julius Bär Gruppe (SWX:BAER)

Overview: Julius Bär Gruppe is a Swiss private bank that focuses on managing and growing the wealth of affluent and ultra high net worth clients through investment advice, discretionary portfolio management, private markets access and family office style services across Switzerland, Europe, the Americas and Asia.

Operations: Julius Bär Gruppe generates CHF 3.8b in revenue almost entirely from its Private Banking unit, with activity spread across Switzerland, Europe, Asia and the Americas.

Market Cap: CHF 15.0b

Julius Bär Gruppe is positioned within the Baillie Gifford shift, as global capital moves toward family offices, cross border wealth and private assets where the bank already has long experience and an open product platform. Earnings and revenue are forecast to grow faster than the Swiss market and the stock trades at a discount to one DCF estimate. However, investors still face meaningful credit quality questions given a relatively high level of bad loans and limited loss coverage. Combined with a solid dividend, new hires focused on key growth regions and a fresh CFO and board oversight, Julius Bär appears to be a wealth manager where both the potential benefits and the areas of pressure are too significant to overlook.

Julius Bär’s push into global private banking, its new leadership, and a discounted DCF estimate hint at an upside story that many investors may be glossing over. However, the real twist sits inside the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

UBS Group (SWX:UBSG)

Overview: UBS Group is a global wealth manager and universal bank that serves private, corporate and institutional clients with investment advice, everyday banking, lending and capital markets services, anchored by its Global Wealth Management, Personal & Corporate Banking, Asset Management and Investment Bank segments.

Operations: UBS Group generates most of its revenue from Global Wealth Management at US$26.6b, followed by Personal & Corporate Banking at US$9.2b and the Investment Bank at US$13.0b, with smaller contributions from Asset Management at US$3.2b and offsets from Group Items and Non Core and Legacy.

Market Cap: CHF125.2b

UBS Group is closely aligned with the Baillie Gifford tilt toward global family offices and private assets, with a leading wealth franchise across the US and Asia, a unified global alternatives unit and fresh momentum from the Credit Suisse integration. Investors get a mix of scale, diversified fee streams and active hiring in US wealth, but also need to weigh funding risk, a sizeable recent one off loss and a dividend record that has not been completely consistent. With earnings growth forecasts that outpace Swiss market expectations and regulators now debating capital relief, the key question for UBS is how much of that story is already reflected in a P/E above the European capital markets average and what is still contained in the details on capital, integration and fee pressure.

UBS Group’s scale and Credit Suisse integration are reshaping its wealth engine, yet the key tension between that momentum and a P/E above European peers is still unresolved inside the 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.