MP Materials (MP) is back in focus after reporting first quarter earnings that combined higher sales with a smaller net loss, along with a new US$500 million rare earth magnet supply partnership with Apple.

Even with the Apple partnership and record first quarter production in focus, MP Materials’ share price has recently come under pressure. The stock is down 16.25% over the past week and 5.20% over 90 days, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 166.13% shows how strong the longer term ride has been.

If this kind of volatility has your attention, it can be useful to compare MP Materials with other rare earth related opportunities and see how they stack up using the 28 best rare earth metal stocks

With earnings improving but the company still reporting a loss, a new US$500 million Apple deal, a US$10.1b market cap, and concerns about valuation and execution, is MP Materials now mispriced or is the stock already assuming years of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 8% Overvalued

Compared to MP Materials’ last close at $54.93, the most followed narrative fair value of $50.85 points to a modest premium that has caught investors’ attention.

MP Materials represents the highest conviction idea in the sector for 2026. The market is currently pricing MP as a mining company, ignoring its imminent transformation into a high-margin industrial manufacturer.

Curious what supports that premium? The narrative describes sharp revenue expansion, higher margins from magnet manufacturing, and a future earnings multiple that resembles a mature industrial business rather than a miner. This framework is used to translate those factors into a single fair value estimate.

Result: Fair Value of $50.85 (OVERVALUED)

However, this hinges on smooth execution. Any delays in ramping the magnet business or weaker-than-expected demand for rare earth products could quickly challenge that premium.

Another Way to Look at Value

That user narrative sees MP Materials as about 8% overvalued at $54.93 versus a fair value of $50.85. Our DCF model points in the opposite direction, with MP trading around 62.1% below an estimate of future cash flow value at $145.01. Which signal do you trust more: sentiment or spreadsheets?

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out MP Materials for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 54 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

With mixed signals around value, sentiment and execution risk, you may want to move quickly and review the full picture of 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

Looking for more investment ideas?

If MP Materials has sparked your interest, do not stop here. Broader opportunities could suit your goals even better when you compare different types of stocks side by side.

• Spot potential value opportunities by checking out companies flagged as 54 high quality undervalued stocks and see which ones line up with your return expectations.
• Prioritise resilience by reviewing the 66 resilient stocks with low risk scores so you can focus on businesses with lower overall risk scores.
• Hunt for future standouts by scanning the screener containing 21 high quality undiscovered gems before they sit firmly on everyone else’s radar.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.