Investors in Mueller Water Products, Inc. (NYSE:MWA) had a good week, as its shares rose 7.8% to close at US$29.18 following the release of its quarterly results. Mueller Water Products reported US$318m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.27 beat expectations, being 3.8% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Mueller Water Products after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Mueller Water Products from six analysts is for revenues of US$1.48b in 2026. If met, it would imply a credible 2.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 8.1% to US$1.38. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.47b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.38 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The consensus price target rose 5.4% to US$29.17despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of Mueller Water Products' earnings by assigning a price premium. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Mueller Water Products, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$33.00 and the most bearish at US$25.00 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Mueller Water Products is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Mueller Water Products' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 3.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.1% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 6.0% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Mueller Water Products is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Mueller Water Products going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see our analysis of Mueller Water Products' Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.