Nasdaq (NDAQ) is back in focus after its Q2 2026 earnings and revenue came in above Wall Street estimates, while a new multi year surveillance technology partnership with prediction market operator Kalshi adds another data point for investors.

For context, Nasdaq shares trade at US$95.62, with a 1 month share price return of 8.56% and a 3 year total shareholder return of 95.09%. This suggests momentum has been building over the longer term even though the year to date share price return is slightly negative. Recent gains around the Q2 2026 earnings beat and the Kalshi surveillance partnership highlight how new business wins and earnings surprises can quickly shift how investors price in growth potential and regulatory risk.

If you are looking beyond Nasdaq for other exchanges and market operators tied to future technology trends, this could be a good moment to check out 20 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks

Bulls point to Nasdaq’s earnings beat, tech partnerships and long term returns. Bears focus on the recent one-year share price dip and regulatory questions. Which side does the current valuation really support next?

Most Popular Narrative: 13.1% Undervalued

Nasdaq's most followed narrative puts fair value at $110.07 compared with the recent $95.62 close. This frames the current debate around earnings durability and technology driven growth.

The enhanced partnership with AWS is expected to modernize Nasdaq's market infrastructure across its financial services clientele, driving operational efficiencies, improving scalability, and potentially increasing market share, positively impacting net margins and future revenue growth. The expansion of Verafin's AI-driven solutions is anticipated to enhance the platform's value, facilitating upselling opportunities, attracting new clients, and increasing engagement.

Want to see what powers that fair value gap for Nasdaq? The narrative focuses on steady revenue expansion, firm margins and a premium earnings multiple. Curious which assumptions really carry the model? The full breakdown lays out the numbers behind that story in black and white.

Result: Fair Value of $110.07 (UNDERVALUED)

However, Nasdaq’s narrative can quickly be tested if regulatory changes slow client adoption of cloud and AI tools, or if competition pressures margins in key Solutions lines.

Another View: Nasdaq Through The Earnings Multiple Lens

The fair value narrative suggests Nasdaq is 13.1% undervalued at $110.07, yet the current P/E of 27.2x sits well above its fair ratio of 16.8x and above the peer average of 25.7x, even though it is below the Capital Markets industry at 37.9x. Is this a reasonable premium, or a valuation risk you need to price in?

Next Steps

Sentiment around Nasdaq is mixed, with both risks and rewards in play. Act while the details are fresh and form your own view with 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

Looking For More Investment Ideas Beyond Nasdaq?

If Nasdaq has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Use this moment to widen your watchlist and spot other opportunities before the crowd catches on.

• Target potential mispricing by scanning for quality stocks that trade below their implied worth through the 51 high quality undervalued stocks.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.