One of the biggest stories of last week was how National CineMedia, Inc. (NASDAQ:NCMI) shares plunged 33% in the week since its latest quarterly results, closing yesterday at US$2.68. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$58m, statutory losses exploded to US$0.11 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from National CineMedia's four analysts is for revenues of US$265.3m in 2026. This reflects a satisfactory 6.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 27% to US$0.10 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$262.1m and losses of US$0.053 per share in 2026. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a sizeable expansion in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

With the increase in forecast losses for next year, it's perhaps no surprise to see that the average price target dipped 8.3% to US$4.81, with the analysts signalling that growing losses would be a definite concern. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic National CineMedia analyst has a price target of US$6.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$4.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of National CineMedia'shistorical trends, as the 13% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 15% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 8.4% per year. So it's pretty clear that National CineMedia is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at National CineMedia. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of National CineMedia's future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for National CineMedia going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.