Why the latest earnings and guidance matter for National Fuel Gas

National Fuel Gas (NFG) has caught investor attention after releasing third quarter and nine month results for 2026, paired with fresh production guidance and an update on its multi year share buyback program.

Following the third quarter results and 2026 production guidance, National Fuel Gas shares have been relatively steady, with a 1 day share price return of 2.19% but a year to date share price return that is down 1.74%. Over a longer horizon, the stock shows resilient momentum, with a 3 year total shareholder return of 60.10% and a 5 year total shareholder return of 77.91%.

If this update on National Fuel Gas has you thinking about where else growth and income stories might be forming, it could be worth scanning 36 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks

After this latest update and the recent share move, the real question is where fair value for National Fuel Gas sits in relation to the current price, the analyst target of US$91, and the much lower intrinsic estimate.

Most Popular Narrative: 18.1% Undervalued

Based on the most followed narrative, National Fuel Gas is priced below an estimated fair value of $98.50, compared with the latest close at $80.63. This puts the focus squarely on the earnings and cash flow assumptions behind that gap.

Favorable regulatory mechanisms (modernization trackers, rate settlements) and a strong balance sheet enable reinvestment and capital return, while robust hedging and firm sales portfolios provide insulation from commodity volatility, helping to stabilize cash flow, support the dividend, and potentially rerate the stock's valuation.

Want to see what is driving that higher fair value for National Fuel Gas? The narrative leans on steady revenue expansion, firm margins, and a richer future earnings multiple. It also considers which specific growth and profitability assumptions need to hold to keep that valuation intact.

The same narrative uses a single discount rate of 7.11% to bring those projected cash flows and earnings back to today. It also builds in expectations for rising earnings, some margin compression, and a higher future P/E multiple than the one currently implied by the market, which together support a fair value of $98.50 for National Fuel Gas common stock.

Result: Fair Value of $98.50 (UNDERVALUED)

However, the National Fuel Gas narrative could be challenged if decarbonization policies in New York and Pennsylvania tighten faster than expected, or if required capital spending rises significantly.

Another View on National Fuel Gas Valuation

The SWS DCF model tells a very different story for National Fuel Gas. On that measure, the stock price of $80.63 sits well above an estimated future cash flow value of $46.65, which flags the shares as overvalued rather than undervalued. That gap raises a simple question: Which cash flow and growth assumptions feel more realistic to you?

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out National Fuel Gas for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 50 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

With mixed signals on National Fuel Gas valuation and sentiment, it makes sense to move quickly, review the data yourself, and test the assumptions that matter most to you. To help you weigh both sides of the story in one place, start by reviewing the 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

Looking for more National Fuel Gas investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.