It's been a good week for National Medical Care Company (TADAWUL:4005) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest second-quarter results, and the shares gained 8.5% to ر.س126. National Medical Care beat revenue forecasts by a solid 12% to hit ر.س456m. Statutory earnings per share came in at ر.س2.10, in line with expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from National Medical Care's eight analysts is for revenues of ر.س1.73b in 2026. This would reflect a reasonable 4.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be ر.س6.84, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ر.س1.69b and earnings per share (EPS) of ر.س7.01 in 2026. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on National Medical Care after the latest results; whilethe analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a minor downgrade to per-share earnings expectations.

The consensus price target was unchanged at ر.س137, suggesting the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite some adjustments to profit and revenue forecasts. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values National Medical Care at ر.س162 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ر.س113. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that National Medical Care's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 8.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 16% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 11% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that National Medical Care is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for National Medical Care. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for National Medical Care going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - National Medical Care has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is concerning) we think you should know about.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.