It's been a mediocre week for National Vision Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:EYE) shareholders, with the stock dropping 14% to US$19.30 in the week since its latest quarterly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$499m were in line with what the analysts predicted, National Vision Holdings surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.15 per share, a notable 13% above expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Following last week's earnings report, National Vision Holdings' eleven analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$2.06b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 8.9% to US$0.69. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.06b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.70 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$28.73, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on National Vision Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$35.00 and the most bearish at US$20.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. For example, we noticed that National Vision Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 2.6% growth to the end of 2026 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 1.2% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 6.0% annually for the foreseeable future. Although National Vision Holdings' revenues are expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are still bearish on the business, forecasting it to grow slower than the broader industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that National Vision Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on National Vision Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for National Vision Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of National Vision Holdings' balance sheet, and whether we think National Vision Holdings is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.