Natural gas intered Week 51 with a forecast -185 BCF storage withdrawal for Week 50 (December 12)-a record draw crushing the 5-year average of -60 BCF-dropping inventories to 3,560 BCF, 74 BCF below 2024 and 28 BCF under the median. Prices surged to three-year highs early December on cold snaps, but milder late-month forecasts trigger corrections, easing volatility. HDD+CDD peaked December 15-16 before declining, while supply-demand narrows post-abnormal growth.

Current natural gas prices compared to price dispersion 10 days before expiration by month since 2010

The US natural gas market in December 2025 is characterized by high volatility: prices initially rose sharply due to cold weather at the beginning of the month, reaching a three-year high, but then fell amid milder weather forecasts for the end of December. The main factors are heating demand, inventories, record LNG exports, and stable production.

Forward curve compared to 2020-2025

The shape of the 2025 forward curve on nearby contracts is moving even closer to the 2023–2024 ranges. Despite high volatility on nearby contracts, contracts with delivery in two years and beyond continue to show clear price stabilization at historically stable levels.

Current natural gas stocks and forecast for next week compared to 2020-2024

According to the forecast for week 50 (EIA report, December 12), a second consecutive significant withdrawal is expected. Gas stocks in underground storage facilities will decrease by a record -185 BCF, which is significantly lower than the average for the past 5 years by 125 BCF. At the same time, stock levels will reach 3560 BCF, which is 74 BCF lower than the 2024 level and 28 BCF lower than the 5-year average.

HDD+CDD based on current NOAA data and forecast for the next two weeks compared to 1994-2024

Currently, the total HDD + CDD (heating and cooling degree days) indicators for all climatic regions of the United States are declining after peaking on December 15-16. According to meteorological model forecasts, the weather in the next two weeks will be within the average and moderately warm ranges of the 30-year climate norm.

HDD+CDD based on current NOAA data and forecast compared to 1994-2024 by region

As of December 17, forecasts predict no significant rise in degree days across regions next week.

Daily supply/demand difference compared to 2014-2024

On December 17, the difference between supply and demand in 2025 declines after abnormal growth and approaches the upper interquartile range for 2014–2024.

Number of days for delivery from warehouses

The graph shows the number of days of supply from storage alone, based on current consumption levels. As of December 17, reserves are sufficient for ≈26 days, which is 5 days less than in 2024, 7 days below the average, and in the lower minimum range for the past 10 years. With this level of reserves and consumption, even minor disruptions in production or spikes in demand could cause strong price reactions, especially in late winter and early spring.

Filling level of European storage facilities

The overall fill rate of European gas storage facilities continued to decline on December 17, reaching 68.8% (-2.7% over the week), which is 9.9% below the average fill rate and 8.7% lower than last year.

Electricity generation by source

Compared to last week, gas generation in the US48 energy balance on December 17, 2025 fell to an average of 38.5% of the total, the share of nuclear generation fell below a 5-year low to 18%, and the share of coal generation remained at an average of 19.3%. The share of wind (12.6%) and solar (3.9%) remained virtually unchanged compared to last week.

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This analysis was conducted in cooperation with Anastasia Volkova, analyst of LSE. The charts were created by our team and based on an analysis from Bloomberg and the EIA data.

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Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.