One thing we could say about the analysts on Viridian Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:VRDN) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. This report focused on revenue estimates, and it looks as though the consensus view of the business has become substantially more conservative.

After the downgrade, the consensus from Viridian Therapeutics' 14 analysts is for revenues of US$59m in 2026, which would reflect a considerable 17% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$4.03 per share. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$73m and US$3.85 per share in losses. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$33.75, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 17% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 83% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 21% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Viridian Therapeutics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. Often, one downgrade can set off a daisy-chain of cuts, especially if an industry is in decline. So we wouldn't be surprised if the market became a lot more cautious on Viridian Therapeutics after today.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Viridian Therapeutics going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.