Last week, you might have seen that Nektar Therapeutics (NASDAQ:NKTR) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.5% to US$73.64 in the past week. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 3.2% short of analyst estimates at US$10m, although statutory losses were somewhat better. The per-share loss was US$1.23, 36% smaller than the analysts were expecting prior to the result. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

After the latest results, the consensus from Nektar Therapeutics' eleven analysts is for revenues of US$42.0m in 2026, which would reflect a stressful 23% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Losses are forecast to balloon 79% to US$8.23 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$41.4m and US$9.01 per share in losses. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.

These new estimates led to the consensus price target rising 6.2% to US$153, with lower forecast losses suggesting things could be looking up for Nektar Therapeutics. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Nektar Therapeutics analyst has a price target of US$192 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$80.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Nektar Therapeutics' decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 41% to the end of 2026. This tops off a historical decline of 10% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 9.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Nektar Therapeutics to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Nektar Therapeutics' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Nektar Therapeutics. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Nektar Therapeutics analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.