A week ago, Nerdy Inc. (NYSE:NRDY) came out with a strong set of first-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Revenues and losses per share were both better than expected, with revenues of US$49m leading estimates by 3.0%. Statutory losses were smaller than the analystsexpected, coming in at US$0.03 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Nerdy after the latest results.

Following last week's earnings report, Nerdy's three analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$182.3m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 24% to US$0.20. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$183.0m and US$0.20 per share in losses.

As a result there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$2.08, implying that the business is trading roughly in line with expectations despite ongoing losses. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Nerdy, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$3.00 and the most bearish at US$1.25 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Nerdy's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 7.4% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Nerdy is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Nerdy's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Nerdy going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Nerdy has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.