It's been a sad week for NeuroPace, Inc. (NASDAQ:NPCE), who've watched their investment drop 18% to US$15.79 in the week since the company reported its first-quarter result. Revenues of US$22m were in line with expectations, although statutory losses per share were US$0.20, some 16% smaller than was expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, NeuroPace's seven analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$99.8m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Losses are expected to hold steady at around US$0.63. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$98.9m and losses of US$0.64 per share in 2026.

As a result there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$19.88, implying that the business is trading roughly in line with expectations despite ongoing losses. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on NeuroPace, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$22.00 and the most bearish at US$18.00 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting NeuroPace is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that NeuroPace's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 20% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 8.0% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that NeuroPace is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that NeuroPace's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for NeuroPace going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.