IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:IDYA) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's forecasts. The analysts have sharply increased their revenue numbers, with a view that IDEAYA Biosciences will make substantially more sales than they'd previously expected.

Following the upgrade, the consensus from 18 analysts covering IDEAYA Biosciences is for revenues of US$33m in 2026, implying a sizeable 85% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are supposed to balloon 177% to US$4.41 per share. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$29m and losses of US$4.50 per share in 2026. So there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts upgrading this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time holding losses per share steady.

There were no major changes to the US$51.69 consensus price target despite the higher revenue estimates, with the analysts seeming to believe that ongoing losses have a larger impact on the valuation than growing sales.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 92% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 41% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 22% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that IDEAYA Biosciences' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The highlight for us was that the consensus reduced its estimated losses this year, perhaps suggesting IDEAYA Biosciences is moving incrementally towards profitability. Pleasantly, analysts also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow slower than the wider market. Given that analysts appear to be expecting substantial improvement in the sales pipeline, now could be the right time to take another look at IDEAYA Biosciences.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for IDEAYA Biosciences going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are upgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.