Nexa Resources (NEXA) is back on investor radars after shareholders approved all resolutions at the company’s recent Annual and Extraordinary General Meetings, including 2025 accounts, board reelections and a share premium reimbursement.

At a share price of $12.85, Nexa Resources has recently been volatile, with the 7 day share price return down 9.76% and the 30 day share price return down 15.13%. However, the 90 day share price return of 30.06% and year to date share price return of 46.19%, alongside a 1 year total shareholder return of 160.12%, suggest momentum has been building over a longer window as investors reassess the stock following the AGM approvals and reimbursement plan.

If Nexa’s recent move has you looking more broadly at metals producers, it could be a useful moment to scan 8 top copper producer stocks

With Nexa Resources trading near its recent gains and sitting slightly above analyst price targets, the key question now is simple: is the stock still undervalued, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 14.3% Undervalued

At $12.85, Nexa Resources is trading below the $15 fair value put forward in the most followed narrative, setting up a clear valuation gap for investors to assess.

Bottom line
Bull case: Nexa is a deeply discounted, integrated zinc-heavy metals platform with improving operations, falling leverage, and real torque to zinc and by-product markets. If zinc fundamentals stay constructive and execution remains disciplined, the stock does not need perfection to rally meaningfully. Bear case: it is still a cyclical miner and smelter. Metal prices, operational issues, and jurisdictional risk can all reverse sentiment quickly. This is not a “sleep well at night” stock.
Investment conclusion: I would frame Nexa as a Speculative Buy. The reason is simple: the valuation is low enough that investors are being paid to underwrite a fair amount of risk, and the company’s 2025 performance shows the upside if the cycle and execution hold together.
My opportunistic fair value estimate for Nexa is $15 per share.

The narrative leans heavily on strong recent EBITDA, improving leverage and a tight zinc backdrop, while also baking in specific assumptions on future earnings resilience and cash generation that are not obvious from headline numbers alone.

Result: Fair Value of $15 (UNDERVALUED)

However, Nexa Resources still faces clear swing factors, including zinc price weakness or setbacks at its Latin American mines and smelters, that could quickly erode this undervaluation story.

Another View: SWS DCF Model Flags Nexa Resources as Overvalued

While the narrative fair value pegs Nexa Resources at $15 per share, the SWS DCF model points in the opposite direction. At a share price of $12.85, Nexa is trading above an estimated future cash flow value of $10.36, which frames the stock as overvalued on this measure. For investors, that raises a simple question: which story should carry more weight, cash flow modelling or the narrative’s earnings and multiple view?

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Nexa Resources for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 44 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

If the mixed signals around Nexa Resources leave you unsure, take a moment to review the underlying data yourself and weigh both sides of the story using the 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

Looking for more Nexa Resources investment ideas?

Before you move on from Nexa Resources, take a few minutes to scan other opportunities with strong fundamentals and different risk profiles so you are not relying on a single stock.

• Target potential mispricings by scanning a focused group of companies that screen as 44 high quality undervalued stocks.
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• Hunt for lesser known opportunities by checking the screener containing 19 high quality undiscovered gems before other investors catch on.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.