• Nexa Resources has already reported a strong first quarter of 2026, with net revenues rising to about US$888 million and net income reaching US$118 million on the back of higher metal prices, stronger smelting volumes, and resolved disruptions in Peru.
• A key shift was the Cerro Lindo silver streaming step-down, which cut the streamed share from 65% to 25% after a delivery threshold, allowing Nexa to retain and sell an additional 1.2–1.3 million ounces of silver at spot prices from the second quarter of 2026.
• We’ll now examine how this improved earnings profile, particularly the reduced Cerro Lindo silver streaming burden, affects Nexa Resources’ investment narrative.

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Nexa Resources Investment Narrative Recap

To stay invested in Nexa, you need to believe that its zinc focused mining and smelting platform can convert a constructive metals backdrop into sustained cash generation, while keeping execution and balance sheet risks contained. The latest Q1 2026 beat and the Cerro Lindo streaming step down strengthen the near term earnings profile, but the key catalyst remains Aripuanã’s ramp up, and the biggest risk is still any operational or cost setback at this asset or other core mines.

Among recent announcements, the reaffirmed 2026 production and cost guidance stands out, because it frames how material the Cerro Lindo streaming relief could be. Management keeping volume and CapEx targets intact after a stronger quarter suggests the upside from retaining 1.2–1.3 million ounces of silver at spot prices will be layered onto an already defined plan, rather than used to offset new operational shortfalls.

Yet, even with better Q1 numbers, you should be aware that any disruption or grade variability at Cerro Lindo could still limit the expected streaming benefit and...

Nexa Resources' narrative projects $2.9 billion revenue and $150.5 million earnings by 2029. This implies relatively flat yearly revenue growth and a $166.7 million earnings increase from -$16.2 million today.

Uncover how Nexa Resources' forecasts yield a $7.02 fair value, a 58% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Before this news, the most pessimistic analysts were only assuming about US$3.0 billion of revenue and roughly US$159 million of earnings by 2029, far below what today’s stronger Q1 and Cerro Lindo streaming shift might imply, so you can see how views on Nexa’s upside and risks can differ sharply and may need updating as new results arrive.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Nexa Resources - why the stock might be worth as much as $15.30!

The Verdict Is Yours

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your Nexa Resources research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Nexa Resources research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Nexa Resources' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.