Nexstar Media Group (NXST) stock is back in focus after the company reported first quarter 2026 earnings and revenue that surpassed Wall Street expectations, along with several senior leadership promotions.

Despite the first quarter 2026 beat and leadership promotions, Nexstar Media Group’s short term share price performance has been weak. The share price is down 11.82% over 30 days and 27.55% over 90 days, even as the 1 year total shareholder return is 5.61% and the 3 year total shareholder return is 17.35%. This suggests longer term holders have seen moderate gains while recent momentum has faded.

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So with Nexstar Media Group stock trading below some analyst valuation estimates despite recent earnings strength, is the current weakness a chance to buy at a discount, or is the market already pricing in the company’s future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 31.5% Undervalued

On the narrative view, Nexstar Media Group stock screens as undervalued, with a fair value of $251.63 versus a last close of $172.29, which puts a spotlight on the long term cash flow story behind those numbers.

Expanded digital and cross-platform advertising, with Nexstar's investments in NewsNation, The CW, and its digital properties, are allowing the company to increasingly capture shifting ad budgets from linear to digital and CTV, providing incremental and higher-growth revenue streams that can bolster both top-line growth and net margins.

Curious what underpins that gap between price and fair value? The narrative leans on brisk revenue expansion, a sharp margin reset, and a future earnings multiple below current industry levels, all tied together by a specific discount rate and detailed earnings path that are not yet reflected in the share price.

Result: Fair Value of $251.63 (UNDERVALUED)

However, there are still meaningful risks for Nexstar Media Group, including pressure on traditional TV audiences and the impact of high debt levels on future flexibility.

Another View on Nexstar Media Group Valuation

While the narrative and analyst targets suggest Nexstar Media Group stock is undervalued, the P/E ratio of 36x paints a different picture. That is higher than the US Media industry at 25.3x, the peer average at 10.8x, and the fair ratio estimate of 24x, which raises the question of whether expectations are already demanding.

For a closer look at how these earnings multiples compare with what the numbers imply as a fair ratio, See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

With mixed signals on valuation and sentiment around Nexstar Media Group, this is a moment to move quickly, review the full picture yourself and weigh both sides through 3 key rewards and 5 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Nexstar Media Group?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.