Why NextNav’s latest earnings caught investor attention

NextNav (NN) drew fresh interest after its second quarter 2026 earnings showed a much smaller net loss alongside slightly lower sales, raising questions about how the stock reflects this shift.

The recent earnings update and NextNav's appearance at the Oppenheimer technology conference have come alongside a 1 month share price return of 52.34% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 37.11%. However, the 3 month share price return declined 7.85%, which suggests that momentum has picked up again following a softer patch.

If the recent move in NextNav has you thinking beyond a single stock, this could be a good moment to see what else is gaining interest through 55 AI infrastructure stocks

NextNav’s sharp swing in returns sits between two stories. One points to improving loss trends in the core business. The other leans on sentiment and conference buzz. Which of those are you really paying for on valuation?

Most Popular Narrative: 40.9% Undervalued

NextNav’s most followed narrative points to a fair value of $33.67 per share compared with a last close of $19.90, which puts a spotlight on what assumptions sit behind that gap.

Progress at the FCC toward an NPRM on 5G based 3D PNT in the lower 900 megahertz band, combined with a congressional push to free more spectrum, sets the stage for commercial rights that can unlock new service revenues and crystallize spectrum value on the balance sheet, supporting higher earnings and asset valuations.

Want to see what drives that kind of upside gap? The narrative leans on declining revenue forecasts, a sharp margin shift and a very high future earnings multiple. Curious which combinations of those inputs have the biggest impact on fair value?

According to this narrative, analysts use a discount rate of 8.79% and fold in expectations for shrinking revenue, improving profitability and a very large future P/E multiple to arrive at the $33.67 figure. Those inputs are then compared with the current $19.90 share price, which is how the 40.9% discount to fair value is framed for investors trying to decide how closely their own assumptions line up with the consensus model.

Result: Fair Value of $33.67 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this upside story for NextNav depends on timely FCC progress and meaningful spectrum commercialization, and any delay or weak adoption could quickly challenge that undervalued narrative.

Another view on NextNav using P/B multiples

The earlier narrative frames NextNav as 40.9% undervalued on a fair value of $33.67 per share. Yet on a simple P/B comparison, the stock looks expensive at around 10x book value versus 6.3x for peers and 3.1x for the wider US Software group. That wide premium suggests less margin for error if the growth story slips.

So if the analyst model points to upside while the balance sheet multiple looks stretched, which signal do you trust more when sizing any position in NN, and how much risk are you willing to take on that gap?

Next Steps

With sentiment on NextNav divided between upside narratives and premium valuation signals, this is a good time to review the underlying data yourself. Before you commit fresh capital, make sure you understand the 4 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.