NI Holdings (NODK) just closed out FY 2025 with Q4 total revenue of US$61.0 million and a basic EPS loss of US$0.15, alongside a net loss of US$3.2 million, putting margins firmly under pressure. Over recent quarters, total revenue has moved from US$73.9 million in Q4 2024 to US$71.4 million in Q1 2025 and US$76.1 million in Q2 2025 before landing at US$61.0 million in Q4 2025, while EPS has swung from a profit of US$0.47 in Q4 2024 to a loss of US$0.57 in Q2 2025 and a loss of US$0.15 in the latest quarter. For investors, the focus this season is on how these shifting revenue levels and recurring losses translate into compressed underwriting margins and what that implies for the quality of future results.

See our full analysis for NI Holdings.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to see how they compare with the narratives investors most often use to frame NI Holdings, highlighting where the latest earnings either support or challenge those views.

Combined ratio near 110% keeps underwriting in the red

• On a trailing twelve month basis, NI Holdings reported a combined ratio of 109.9%, compared with 94.4% in Q1 2025 and 109.1% in Q3 2025. This shows that claims and expenses together ran above premium income for much of the year.
• Bears argue that persistent underwriting pressure is a core issue, and the figures here lean in that direction:
  • The company moved from a Q1 2025 combined ratio of 94.4% alongside net income of US$6.5 million to combined ratios above 109% in Q2 and Q3 2025, where net income turned into losses of US$12.1 million and US$1.7 million respectively.
  • Over the trailing twelve months, net income excluding extra items came to a loss of US$10.4 million. This supports the cautious view that underwriting results have recently not been strong enough to cover claims and expenses plus a margin.

TTM loss of US$10.4m versus earlier profitability

• Across the trailing twelve months to Q4 2025, NI Holdings posted a net loss excluding extra items of US$10.4 million, compared with net income excluding extra items of US$6.6 million in the trailing twelve months to Q4 2024.
• Critics highlight that this reversal lines up with a longer earnings decline, and the numbers give that view some backing:
  • Over the past five years, earnings have declined on average 15.2% per year, and the most recent trailing period remains loss making even though total revenue over those twelve months was US$285.1 million.
  • Within FY 2025 alone, the shift from a profit of US$6.5 million in Q1 to a loss of US$3.2 million in Q4 underlines how quickly profitability has moved away from the pattern seen in late 2024, when Q4 2024 net income excluding extra items was US$9.8 million.

P/S of 0.9x sits below industry and peers

• NI Holdings trades on a P/S of 0.9x, compared with 1.1x for the broader US Insurance industry and 1.8x for peers, while generating trailing twelve month revenue of US$285.1 million.
• What stands out is how this valuation discount lines up with the bearish focus on weak profitability, rather than with any bullish argument that sales alone tell the story:
  • The company is currently unprofitable on a trailing twelve month basis, with a basic EPS of US$0.50 loss and no positive earnings trend to pair with the lower P/S multiple.
  • At the same time, earnings have declined about 15.2% per year over five years. This helps explain why the market may be applying a lower sales based multiple even though trailing revenue sits in the mid hundreds of millions of US dollars.

For a fuller view of how community investors are weighing these loss trends against the current valuation, check out the Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives

Next Steps

Don't just look at this quarter; the real story is in the long-term trend. We've done an in-depth analysis on NI Holdings's growth and its valuation to see if today's price is a bargain. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio now so you don't miss the next big move.

If this all sounds cautious, that is the point. The best move now is to review the numbers yourself and stress test your thesis against the 1 important warning sign.

See What Else Is Out There

With a combined ratio near 110%, recurring net losses of US$10.4 million and no recent profitability trend, NI Holdings is clearly under earnings pressure.

If you want stocks where the current price may better reflect stronger fundamentals and steadier profitability, it is worth checking the 51 high quality undervalued stocks right now.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.