The first-quarter results for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:NCLH) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues were US$2.3b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$0.23, an impressive 171% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings' 19 analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$10.2b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 24% to US$1.54. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$10.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.86 in 2026. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a substantial drop in earnings per share estimates.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 13% to US$21.52. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$32.00 and the most bearish at US$14.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 39% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 9.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is potentially serious) we think you should know about.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.