Novavax (NVAX) has opened 2026 with Q1 revenue of US$139.5 million and a basic EPS loss of US$0.06, alongside net income excluding extra items of a US$9.5 million loss. The company has seen revenue move from US$88.3 million in Q4 2024 to US$666.7 million in Q1 2025 and then US$139.5 million in Q1 2026, while basic EPS has ranged from a loss of US$0.51 in Q4 2024 to a profit of US$3.22 in Q1 2025 before settling at a small loss this quarter. This sets up a story in which investors may focus closely on how efficiently revenue is translating into earnings.

See our full analysis for Novavax.

With the latest quarterly results in hand, the next step is to see how these margins and earnings swings line up with the key bull and bear narratives investors have been relying on.

TTM still shows a US$87.8m loss

• On a trailing 12 month basis to Q1 2026, Novavax recorded total revenue of US$596.3 million and a net loss excluding extra items of US$87.8 million, with basic EPS at a loss of US$0.54.
• Consensus narrative expects partnership driven recurring revenue and a leaner model to support profitability, yet the current TTM loss shows that this shift is not reflected in the latest numbers:
  • Revenue over the last four quarters sits below the US$1.1b to US$1.3b range seen in earlier TTM periods from 2025, while earnings have swung from a TTM profit of US$440.3 million at Q4 2025 to a TTM loss of US$87.8 million at Q1 2026.
  • Forecasts in the analysis data point to earnings growing 62.1% per year with an expectation of profitability within three years, which contrasts with the most recent TTM figures that still show losses.

Q1 revenue of US$139.5m vs TTM decline signal

• Q1 2026 revenue of US$139.5 million compares to US$666.7 million in Q1 2025 and sits against TTM revenue of US$596.3 million, while analysts in the risk and reward data expect revenue to decline about 9% per year over the next three years.
• Consensus narrative talks about expanding vaccine markets and new licensing deals, but the data here leans toward the more cautious, bearish framing that questions long term topline resilience:
  • Bears highlight that analysts are assuming revenue will fall 31.4% to 39.8% annually in some scenarios, which is consistent with the drop from US$666.7 million in Q1 2025 to US$139.5 million in Q1 2026 and the lower TTM revenue level at Q1 2026 compared with earlier TTM periods above US$1.0b.
  • At the same time, bearish narratives point to a limited vaccine portfolio and partner dependence, and the current pattern of revenue concentration around a few strong quarters followed by weaker ones gives those concerns some backing in the reported figures.

On that view, if you are worried about how concentrated revenue and partner risk might affect your thesis, it is worth reading how skeptics frame the downside case in more detail 🐻 Novavax Bear Case.

Valuation gap vs US$14.00 target and DCF fair value

• With the stock at US$9.36, the analyst consensus target of US$14.00 implies a gap of about US$4.64 per share, while the provided DCF fair value of US$59.12 and a P/S of 2.6x versus an industry average of 10.9x reflect a wide spread between current pricing and the figures in the analysis data.
• Bullish investors argue that partnerships and high margin royalties can justify that valuation gap, and the numbers here give them concrete talking points as well as clear risks to track:
  • Valuation data notes that the DCF fair value of US$59.12 is far above the current price of US$9.36, and the company’s P/S of 2.6x sits below both the US Biotechs industry at 10.9x and the peer average at 5.9x, which bulls view as signs of potential upside if earnings forecasts materialize.
  • On the other hand, the same analysis flags negative shareholders’ equity and an unprofitable TTM period with a US$87.8 million loss, so any bullish view built on that discount also needs to factor in balance sheet strength and the forecast revenue decline of about 9% per year.

If you want to see how bullish investors connect these valuation gaps to the long term story around royalties and the vaccine platform, it is worth reading the full bullish case 🐂 Novavax Bull Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Novavax on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

With both risks and potential rewards in play, it helps to look beyond the headlines and test the data yourself. If you want a clear snapshot of what could go right and what could go wrong, start by reviewing the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

See What Else Is Out There

Novavax is still reporting TTM losses, revenue swings between strong and weak quarters, and negative shareholders’ equity alongside forecasts that point to further revenue declines.

If you want stocks where the balance sheet is a strength rather than a concern, start comparing candidates using the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (45 results) today.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.