Novavax (NVAX) recently reported first quarter 2026 results that beat revenue and loss expectations, helped by a US$30 million upfront payment from a new Pfizer licensing deal and fresh Matrix M partnership activity.

The stock has rallied strongly in recent months, with a 7 day share price return of 16.5% and a year to date share price return of 29.5%, although the 5 year total shareholder return remains down 92.4%.

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With the share price rebounding and analysts’ targets implying further upside, while revenue and earnings remain under pressure, investors now face a key question: is Novavax undervalued after years of weakness, or is the recent rally already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 33% Undervalued

The latest narrative pegs Novavax's fair value at $13.78 versus a last close of $9.23, framing the recent share price rebound against a higher modeled central value.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $12.5 for Novavax based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $25.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $6.0.

Want to see what sits behind that spread in outcomes? The narrative focuses on shrinking revenue, shifting margins and a future profit multiple far above typical biotech peers.

Result: Fair Value of $13.78 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this story can change quickly if partner-led milestones slip or if COVID and combination vaccine demand falls short of the assumptions baked into forecasts.

Next Steps

With sentiment split between concern and optimism, this is a moment to look at the numbers yourself and decide quickly where you stand, starting with the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.