According to a report by The Information, NVIDIA has informed its clients that the release of the new Blackwell B200 chip will be delayed by at least three months, with mass shipments potentially postponed until Q1 next year.

Original Schedule and Potential Impact

The Blackwell chip was initially scheduled for mass production in October 2024. A delay extending to April 2025 could directly affect NVIDIA's quarterly revenue. However, NVIDIA has responded to the media stating that the strong demand for Hopper chips and the production plans for Blackwell chips remain unchanged.

A spokesperson for NVIDIA stated:

"As we have previously mentioned, demand for Hopper is very strong. The large-scale sampling of Blackwell has been completed, and production for the second half of the year will proceed as planned. Beyond that, we do not comment on rumors."

This implies that even if the B200 release is delayed, the overall impact on NVIDIA's revenue may be minimal due to the robust demand for Hopper chips.

Chip Pricing and Analyst Estimates

The Blackwell GPU architecture includes B100, B200, and the GB200 superchip. If the B200 chip release is delayed, Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh estimates its price to be between $30,000 and $40,000, while the GB200 could be priced between $50,000 and $70,000.

UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri predicts that by the quarter ending January 2025, B200 and GB200 shipments will reach approximately 32,500 and 43,400 units, respectively. These figures represent only 7% of all chip shipments for that quarter, with the majority being Hopper chips.

Combining the analysts' estimates, the B200 products are expected to contribute $3 billion in revenue for the January 2025 quarter, accounting for 9% of the total projected revenue of $34.5 billion for that period.

Customer Concerns and Market Impact

For NVIDIA's customers, the chip delay could heighten concerns about delivery timelines. Notably, tech giants such as Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta collectively spent nearly $60 billion on capital expenditures in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of two-thirds, with a significant portion directed towards NVIDIA.

The Information also reported that Meta has secured orders worth at least $10 billion, while Microsoft has increased its order size by 20% in recent weeks, planning to prepare 55,000 to 65,000 GB200 chips for OpenAI by Q1 2025.

Additionally, design flaws may impact the production and delivery of NVIDIA's NVLink server racks, as server companies must wait for new chip samples before finalizing rack designs.

Market Sentiment

Despite potential minor fluctuations in sales and revenue, some believe that NVIDIA's popularity on Wall Street is unlikely to be affected. As of Friday, NVIDIA's stock closed at $107, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 40x based on this year's projected earnings, and 30x for next year's projections, remaining at a high valuation.