Nvidia Earnings No Longer About Beating Estimates, But About Whether Jensen Huang Can Prove AI Supercycle Still Has Years Left: Top Analyst
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Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) is scheduled to report its first-quarter earnings on Wednesday. A top analyst said that investors are increasingly focused not on whether the chipmaker beats expectations, but whether CEO Jensen Huang can convince Wall Street that the AI infrastructure boom still has years of growth ahead.
AI Supercycle Faces Its Biggest Test Yet
In a statement to Benzinga, Daniel Newman, CEO of The Futurum Group, said Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is "the most consequential print of the AI cycle," arguing the company's guidance and commentary now matter more than the quarter itself.
"The market has priced the company as the central nervous system of the AI economy," Newman said, adding that investors are now watching whether the AI spending surge can continue into fiscal 2028 and beyond.
Wall Street expectations have climbed above Nvidia's own guidance for the first time in this AI cycle, with analysts looking for roughly $80 billion in quarterly revenue and about $86 billion in the second-quarter guidance.
According to Newman, "A clean $80B+ print is necessary. It is not sufficient."
Blackwell, Rubin And China In Focus
Investors are also closely monitoring Nvidia's transition from its Blackwell AI platform to next-generation Rubin systems.
Newman said the key risk is whether customers delay Blackwell purchases while waiting for Rubin, potentially creating a temporary slowdown in orders.
However, he noted Nvidia's annual product cadence is designed to avoid such disruptions.
The analyst also highlighted China as a major wildcard after reports suggested Washington earlier this month cleared limited H200 chip sales to some Chinese firms.
"Any language on the call about timing, framework, or unit economics for a China re-entry path is the single biggest variable for the stock," Newman said.
Why Nvidia Earnings Could Move The Entire AI Market
The analyst also said that Nvidia's earnings could influence a wide range of AI-related companies, including Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD), Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO), Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSM).
Newman's base case calls for revenue between $79 billion and $81 billion, gross margins above 75% and second-quarter guidance in the $86 billion to $88 billion range — a result he believes would validate the AI "supercycle" narrative.
In February, Nvidia reported fourth-quarter revenue of $68.13 billion, up 73% year over year and ahead of analysts' expectations of $66 billion.
Price Action: Shares of Nvidia closed Tuesday at $220.61, down 0.77% and rose 0.42% to $221.54 in after-hours trading, according to Benzinga Pro.
According to Benzinga Edge Stock Rankings, NVDA ranks in the 98th percentile for Growth and continues to maintain a strong bullish price trend across its short, medium and long-term price trends.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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