Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) reports fiscal Q4 earnings after the bell today.

The company has topped revenue estimates for 13 consecutive quarters and earnings estimates for 12 straight quarters.

What Prediction Markets Are Saying

This explains why Polymarket gives a 93% chance the company beats the EPS consensus.

The more interesting action is on Kalshi, where traders are betting real money on which specific words Jensen Huang and his team will say on the 5 p.m. ET call.

The word list reads like a cheat sheet for what Wall Street actually cares about tonight.

“Gaming” is at 98%. “Hyperscaler” 91%. “TSMC” 81%.

Omniverse is at 90% because Nvidia has pitched its industrial simulation platform, used by automakers, chipmakers, and manufacturers to build digital twins of their factories; on essentially every earnings call for the past two years.

“Tariff” is at 77%.

The Supreme Court struck down most of President Trump’s tariff regime last week and trade policy is in flux. If Huang addresses tariffs directly, it signals Nvidia sees supply chain or pricing risk the market hasn’t priced in.

“Automation” is at 71%. The entire AI scare trade that wiped 13% off International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM) on Monday was about automation eating white-collar jobs.

If Huang leans into “automation” as a chip demand driver, he’s validating the disruption thesis that just terrified the software sector.

“Humanoid” sits at 56%, basically a coin flip.

Huang called robotics “the largest industry of all” at Nvidia’s GTC conference, and said the world will be 50 million workers short by decade’s end. A mention tonight signals he’s still framing humanoid robotics as a near-term commercial play, not a lab experiment.

“Taiwan” at 39% is geopolitically loaded.

Nvidia depends on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (NYSE:TSM) for nearly all of its chip fabrication, and the CIA warned tech CEOs including Huang that China could invade as early as 2027.

“Self Driving” is at 76%, reflecting a market that no longer sees autonomous vehicles as the next shiny thing. Nvidia is actively building out its self-driving stack, but the segment is still a tiny portion of revenue.

“H20” is at 79%. That’s Nvidia’s China-compliant chip.

Anthropic recently accused DeepSeek of running 24,000 fake accounts to distill Claude’s capabilities at scale, essentially using one AI model to train a cheaper rival. It will be worth watching if Huang addresses this directly, or the fact that no H20’s have been sold to China yet.

“Trump” sits at 14%, down 17 points.

Traders don’t expect Jensen to name-drop the president, even with tariffs, export controls, and the Supreme Court ruling all in play.

Reading The Board

Traders expect Huang to sell the AI infrastructure buildout, talk trade policy and onshoring, and stay away from China, autonomous vehicles, and the president.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives called tonight the most important event for global tech, writing that the “AI Ghost Trade” is a “black cloud” over tech stocks and that “it all comes down to gauging the AI Revolution demand story which starts and ends with Nvidia.”

The call is at 5 p.m. ET.

Image: Shutterstock