Happy Friday,
 
Yesterday, as investors digested the FOMC rate decision and a busy 24 hours of earnings US equity markets closed the session higher. There was a brief selloff in the final hour of trade following tariff headlines from President Trump however, market did bounce back into the close recouping most of those losses. At the highs yesterday the S&P 500 had gotten within ~15pts of filling Monday’s DeepSeek induced gap. Coming into today the index is down ~-0.5% while the equal-weight version of the index is slightly higher. Semis/mega-cap tech stocks have underperformed for the week though will get some help following Apple’s (+4%) earnings were well received. Outside of earnings there has been a round of global inflation data which was mixed overnight. That being said global markets are modestly higher. US futures have also been moving modestly higher overnight and are currently just above yesterday’s high.  This morning’s inflation data was in line, wages were inline while consumer spending was strong. S&P futures are currently trading ~0.5% above fair-value. Apple accounts for about half of that move.
 
Quickly looking at the US data. Personal income was inline with expectations up 0.4% while spending came in well ahead up 0.7% vs. 0.4% expectations. There are some signals within the data that suggest there has been a bit of a pull forward of demand ahead of potential tariffs. The Employee Cost index was up 0.9% inline with expectations but up from 0.8% last quarter. The PCE readings were also pretty much in line with estimates up 2.6% and 2.8% annually for headline and core, respectively. Headline was 0.2% higher than last month while core was unchanged. There was some minor volatility in Treasury markets, but yields have settled around unchanged holding on to the move lower we’ve seen throughout the week. The tariff headlines are helping the USD index move higher up 0.5% to $108.10
 
Much of Asia remained closed overnight. The Nikkei did close modestly higher despite a weak retail sales report and hotter inflation data. South Korea re-opened for the first time this week ending the session down 0.8%. After the ECB cut rates yesterday there was a very weak retail sales report in Germany and preliminary inflation data in France and Germany came in below expectations. The German 10yr Bund is down >10bps this week. As we’ve been highlighting throughout the week European indices have been outperforming with many hitting new all-time highs.
 
Commodities are mixed. ICE Brent is hovering around unchanged but down >2% for the week. Natural gas continues to extend lower off >10% WTD. It has been a very strong week for precious metals while copper is modestly lower. Ag has been mixed. Bitcoin is modestly lower down ~0.4%.
 
Earnings:
After-Market: AAPL, AJG, BKR, BOOT, DECK, EMN, GEN, HIG, INTC, KLAC, LPLA, OLN, PPG, RMD, V, WY
Pre-Market: ABBV, ALV, AON, ARCB, BAH, BEN, BMI, CHD, CHTR, CL, CVX, ETN, GNTX, GWW, JHG, LYB, PSX, RVTY, VSTS, XOM
 
Global Markets
Asia:
Japan's Nikkei: +0.2% (-0.9% for the week)
Hong Kong's Hang Seng: HOLIDAY (+0.8% for the week)
China's Shanghai Composite: HOLIDAY (-0.1% for the week)
India's Sensex: +1.0% (+1.7% for the week)
South Korea's Kospi: -0.8% (-0.8% for the week)
Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.5% (+1.5% for the week)
 
Europe:
STOXX Europe 600: +0.4% (+2.1% week-to-date)
Germany's DAX: +0.3% (+1.8% week-to-date)
U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.3% (+2.0% week-to-date)
France's CAC 40: +0.7% (+0.8% week-to-date)
Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.4% (+1.1% week-to-date)
Spain's IBEX 35: +0.1% (+3.8% week-to-date)
 
Sectors/Other Asset Classes:
Government Yields

• US 2yr -0bps to 4.21%, 5yr +0bps to 4.32%, 10yr +0bps to 4.52%, 30yr +1bps to 4.77%
• USD index: +$0.61 to $108.25
• Oil prices - ICE Brent: +0.1% to $76.95, WTI: +0.2% to $72.87, Nat Gas: -1.7% to $3.00
• Gold: +0.1% to $2,847.40, Silver: +0.4% to $32.64, Copper: -0.7% to $4.28
• Wheat: -2.5% to $5.74, Corn: -2.1% to $4.80, Soybeans: -0.8% to $10.35, Cotton: -0.6% to $0.66
• VIX: -0.50 to 15.34
• Bitcoin: -0.4% to ~104.7k

Washington:

• WSJ article suggesting that tariffs put on Mexico/Canada could be targeted. There are some advisors concerned that they could be overturned by a judge which could weaken tariffs and the use IEEPA going forward

Economic Data:

• US:
  • Personal income: 0.4% vs. 0.4% cons. prior 0.3%
  • Personal spending: 0.7% vs. 0.4% cons,. prior 0.5%
  • Employee Cost Index/Wages: 0.9%/0.9% vs. 0.9%/0.9% cons,. prior 0.8%/0.8%
  • PCE: 0.3%/2.6% vs. 0.3%/2.6% cons,. prior 0.1%/2.4%
  • Core-PCE: 0.2%/2.8% vs. 0.3%/2.8% cons,. prior 0.1%/2.8%
  • 9:45 Chicago PMI
• Global
  • Tokyo CPI: 3.4% vs. 3.1% cons., prior 3%
  • Japan Retail Sales: -0.7% vs. 0.1% cons. ,prior 1.9%
  • Japan Industrial production: 0.3% vs. 0.3% cons., prior -2.2%
  • Japan unemployment: 2.4% vs. 2.5% cons,. prior 2.5%
  • Germany CPI: -0.2%/2.3% vs. 0.1%/2.6% cons., prior 0.5%/2.6%
  • Germany retail sales: -1.6% vs. 0.2% cons., prior -0.1%
  • Germany unemployment: 6.2% vs. 6.2% cons,. prior 6.1%
  • France CPI (prelim): -0.1% vs. 0% cons., prior 0.2%