• In February 2026, Oddity Tech reported fourth-quarter 2025 sales of US$152.73 million and net income of US$5.88 million, alongside full-year 2025 sales of US$809.84 million and net income of US$110.75 million, while completing a US$47 million buyback of 1,250,000 shares previously announced in June 2024.
• At the same time, management guided to an approximately 30% year-over-year revenue decline for the first quarter of 2026 due to higher acquisition costs, highlighting a short-term profitability headwind that contrasts with earlier expectations of consistent growth.
• We will now examine how this anticipated 30% revenue decline in early 2026 reshapes Oddity Tech's previously growth-focused investment narrative.

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Oddity Tech Investment Narrative Recap

To own Oddity Tech today, you need to believe its AI driven, digital first model can still compound value even when growth temporarily stalls. The guidance for an approximately 30% year over year revenue drop in Q1 2026 directly touches the key near term catalyst and risk: whether higher customer acquisition costs will be a short bump or a more persistent drag on growth and margins. For now, this guidance materially elevates concerns around Oddity’s cost of growth.

The completion of Oddity’s US$47 million repurchase of 1,250,000 shares adds an extra layer to this picture. On one hand, it reflects a willingness to return cash to shareholders alongside solid 2025 results, including full year net income of US$110.75 million. On the other, the sharp reset in Q1 2026 expectations refocuses attention on whether future cash flows will be directed more toward funding higher acquisition costs than toward similar buybacks or new growth initiatives.

Yet beneath the headline revenue drop, investors should be aware that rising acquisition costs could compound with Oddity’s heavy dependence on paid digital marketing...

Oddity Tech's narrative projects $1.3 billion revenue and $177.0 million earnings by 2028. This requires 19.0% yearly revenue growth and about a $66.9 million earnings increase from $110.1 million today.

Uncover how Oddity Tech's forecasts yield a $66.45 fair value, a 465% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

While the most bullish analysts once projected revenue near US$1.3 billion and earnings above US$180 million by 2028, this new 30% Q1 revenue decline guidance may challenge those optimistic views and your own expectations.

Explore 9 other fair value estimates on Oddity Tech - why the stock might be worth over 7x more than the current price!

Decide For Yourself

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your Oddity Tech research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Oddity Tech research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Oddity Tech's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.