Economist Justin Wolfers on Tuesday warned of rising food prices if the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues, which is not only driving oil prices higher but also fertilizer costs.

In a post on X, Wolfers wrote, “The big story right now is oil. The next story is food.” He added, "That’s the transmission channel people miss: if fertilizer is caught on the wrong side of the Strait of Hormuz, food prices can be next."

Higher Fertilizer Prices Could Result In Food Crisis

Higher fertliizer prices are putting pressure on farmers and the agriculture sector. As tensions around the Strait of Hormuz disrupt global supply, prices for key inputs like urea and ammonia have jumped sharply since the start of the conflict with Iran.

Urea prices have doubled since February, to approximately $900 per metric ton, the highest since 2022. Nitrogen fertilizer, essential for crop growth, is also affected, as about one-third of global nitrogen trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

The World Bank projects fertilizer prices could rise 31% in 2026, which would worsen affordability for farmers, reducing farm income and hurting future harvests. The bank flagged a downside risk scenario in which a longer conflict could intensify food stress. Under that outcome, up to 45 million additional people could fall into acute food insecurity this year, based on World Food Programme estimates cited by the bank.

As the U.S. grapples with rising fertilizer costs, geopolitical tensions are expected to keep energy prices elevated, contributing to ongoing agricultural challenges. The share of Americans reporting higher-than-expected grocery prices jumped to 48% in March from 46% in February, according to Morning Consult polling.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by a Benzinga editor.

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