Olaplex Holdings (OLPX) has just posted its FY 2025 third quarter numbers, with revenue at US$114.6 million and basic EPS of US$0.02, alongside net income of US$11.1 million, as investors weigh these figures against a trailing twelve month loss of US$5.0 million and TTM basic EPS of roughly US$0.01. The company has seen revenue move from US$103.9 million in Q2 2024 to US$119.1 million in Q3 2024, then to US$114.6 million in Q3 2025. Over the same period, quarterly basic EPS has swung between a loss of about US$0.01 and a gain of roughly US$0.02, which leaves the focus squarely on how sustainably margins can be rebuilt from here.

See our full analysis for Olaplex Holdings.

With the headline numbers set, the next step is to compare these results with the main stories around Olaplex to see which narratives the latest margins support and which ones start to look out of sync with the data.

TTM loss of US$5.0 million contrasts with Q3 profit

• On a trailing twelve month basis Olaplex is still loss making, with net income of about US$5.0 million in the red even though Q3 FY 2025 on its own showed net income of US$11.1 million and basic EPS of roughly US$0.02.
• Consensus narrative talks about margin pressure from higher sales, marketing and people costs, and that lines up with the data showing TTM net income slipping from a profit of US$47.992 million in Q2 FY 2024 to a loss of US$4.95 million in Q3 FY 2025. This raises the question of whether the recent quarter’s US$11.127 million profit is a one off or the start of a more stable margin profile.
  • Analysts’ consensus view points to EBITDA margins moving from 33.3% last year to 24.7% year to date, which fits with the TTM earnings swing from a profit to a small loss.
  • At the same time, the latest quarter’s profit compared with a loss of US$8.8 million in Q4 FY 2024 shows management is at least getting some traction from the transformation they are spending on, which is exactly what the consensus narrative is watching.

Revenue around US$418 million TTM, but premium P/S of 2.3x

• Over the last twelve months Olaplex booked US$418.582 million of revenue while the shares trade on a P/S of 2.3x, above the US Personal Products industry at 0.9x and above the peer average of 0.3x.
• Bears argue that flat to soft sales and channel headwinds do not sit well with a premium P/S, and the data offers some support, with TTM revenue easing from US$438.121 million in Q2 FY 2024 to US$418.582 million in Q3 FY 2025 even as the company remains unprofitable on that same TTM view.
  • Critics also point to guidance commentary around modest sales ranges and declines in specialty retail, which they see as hard to square with paying a higher sales multiple than the sector.
  • On the other hand, the most recent quarter shows revenue of US$114.579 million compared with US$96.978 million in Q1 FY 2025, which is the kind of stabilisation bears will want to see sustained before feeling comfortable with the current P/S.

Over the past year, revenue softness and a higher sales multiple have made many investors skeptical that Olaplex’s premium brand can justify its pricing, so if you want to see how those concerns stack up against the full cautious case, check out the detailed bear-side run through of the business in 🐻 Olaplex Holdings Bear Case.

Mixed signals between DCF fair value and analyst target

• The shares trade at about US$1.47 against a DCF fair value of roughly US$2.57 and an analyst price target of about US$2.02, so both models sit above the current price even while the company is unprofitable on a TTM basis.
• Bullish investors lean on that gap as a potential upside signal, but the numbers also highlight tension, because agreeing with a more optimistic path means accepting that earnings would need to lift from a TTM loss of US$4.95 million toward the analysts’ US$11.9 million earnings expectation by around 2028 while the market eventually applies a P/E of 149.8x on those earnings.
  • Supporters point to the recent swing from a quarterly loss of US$8.8 million in Q4 FY 2024 to profit of US$11.127 million in Q3 FY 2025 as evidence that the turnaround is underway.
  • At the same time, the historical five year pattern of losses growing at about 34.7% a year and the recent volatility in TTM earnings show why the market might hesitate to fully close the gap to either the DCF fair value or the analyst target.

If you are weighing those upside scenarios against the patchy profit record, it is worth reading how bullish investors knit these earnings together into

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Olaplex Holdings on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

With all these mixed signals in mind, do you feel the story leans more positive or negative, and are you ready to act on your own view right now? Our data highlights both concerns and reasons for optimism, so it is worth weighing them side by side in 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs.

See What Else Is Out There

Olaplex’s premium P/S of 2.3x alongside TTM losses and softer revenue, plus a volatile earnings record, makes the current setup look fragile.

If you want ideas that put more of the odds in your favor right now, check out our 74 resilient stocks with low risk scores built to highlight companies with steadier fundamentals and fewer red flags than this kind of choppy story.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.