How Old National Bancorp’s latest earnings event frames the stock

Old National Bancorp (ONB) has drawn fresh attention after reporting second quarter 2026 results that included higher net interest income and net income compared with a year earlier, along with a completed share repurchase tranche and steady net charge offs.

Old National Bancorp’s recent earnings update and completed buyback have come alongside firm share price momentum, with an 18.14% year to date share price return and a 33.84% total shareholder return over the past year suggesting improving sentiment rather than fading enthusiasm.

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The recent jump in earnings and a fresh round of buybacks have already pushed Old National Bancorp higher. The real question now is whether today’s price offers fair value or whether patience could set up a better entry.

Most Popular Narrative: 9% Undervalued

Old National Bancorp’s most widely followed narrative points to a fair value of about $29.27 a share, compared with the recent $26.64 close. That gap rests on detailed assumptions about how earnings and capital returns evolve over the next few years.

ONB's strong performance in expanding its fee-based businesses (wealth, mortgage, and capital markets) and well-controlled expenses, along with increasing organic noninterest income, are supported by the demographic shift of the aging U.S. population, which is likely to further boost demand for wealth management and trust services, generating higher recurring revenue and improving earnings stability.

Want to understand why this fair value sits a step above today’s price? The narrative leans heavily on compounded earnings, firmer margins, and a future earnings multiple that differs from what the market is implying right now.

Result: Fair Value of $29.27 (UNDERVALUED)

However, Old National Bancorp’s story can change if commercial real estate pressures rise, or if its Midwest focused footprint faces a prolonged regional slowdown.

Next Steps

If this Old National Bancorp narrative of solid progress with mixed signals on risk and reward feels balanced, use the data to test it for yourself and act while the picture is still fresh. To weigh both sides in one place, review the 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.