How Old National Bancorp Stock Has Been Trading

Old National Bancorp (ONB) has drawn attention after a mixed stretch of recent returns. The stock is up slightly over the past week, roughly flat over the month, and higher over the past 3 months and year to date.

At a share price of US$25.85, Old National Bancorp has delivered a 14.63% year to date share price return. Its 1 year total shareholder return of 16.35% and 3 year total shareholder return of 83.05% point to momentum that has built over a longer period, despite a softer 30 day share price return of 3.87%.

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Old National Bancorp shares have already moved higher over the past year, yet the stock still trades below some estimates of value. Is this a moment to start building a position now, or is it better to wait for a cheaper entry later?

Most Popular Narrative: 11.7% Undervalued

The most followed narrative for Old National Bancorp sets a fair value of about $29.27 per share, compared with the latest close at $25.85. That gap reflects a detailed view on how earnings, margins and capital returns could play out over time.

The recently closed Bremer Bank partnership, completed ahead of schedule, has significantly expanded ONB's balance sheet and capital position, supporting both current earnings momentum and future loan growth. This positions ONB to benefit from ongoing migration and economic strengthening in its Midwest/South footprint, driving long-term revenue and EPS growth.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what is behind that fair value for Old National Bancorp? The narrative leans heavily on projected revenue gains, stronger margins and a lower future earnings multiple. It is worth examining how those building blocks fit together and what kind of capital return profile they assume over the next few years.

Result: Fair Value of $29.27 (UNDERVALUED)

However, Old National Bancorp still faces meaningful risks, including its commercial real estate exposure and relatively concentrated Midwest footprint. These factors could pressure asset quality and loan demand.

Next Steps

The mix of risks and rewards around Old National Bancorp is clear, so the next step is to weigh the numbers yourself and decide how that balance sits for you. To see both sides set out in one place, review the 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Old National Bancorp?

If you stop with Old National Bancorp, you could miss other opportunities that better fit your goals, risk comfort and income needs across different types of stocks.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.