Old National Bancorp: Why the Recent Conference Matters for the Stock

Old National Bancorp (ONB) recently presented at the Morgan Stanley US Financials Conference in New York, an event that has sharpened investor focus on the regional bank's earnings, revenue profile, and margin trends.

Alongside the conference appearance, Old National Bancorp has been drawing attention for its earnings, revenue and margins, which together are shaping how investors are reassessing the stock's risk and return trade off.

Old National Bancorp’s recent conference appearance comes after a solid run in the stock, with a 90 day share price return of 15.15% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 21.83%. These figures point to strengthening momentum built on operational improvements.

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With Old National Bancorp showing strong recent returns, improving earnings and a reported intrinsic discount of around 50%, the key question is whether the stock still trades below its fundamentals or if the market is already pricing in expectations for future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 10.4% Undervalued

Old National Bancorp’s most followed narrative puts fair value at $27.90, above the recent close of $25.01. This frames the conference updates against a modest valuation gap.

The recently closed Bremer Bank partnership, completed ahead of schedule, has significantly expanded ONB's balance sheet and capital position, supporting both current earnings momentum and future loan growth; this positions ONB to benefit from ongoing migration and economic strengthening in its Midwest/South footprint, driving long-term revenue and EPS growth.

Want to see what underpins that fair value for Old National Bancorp? The narrative focuses on measured growth, rising profitability, and a lower future earnings multiple than today. Curious how those factors combine into a single valuation story that still screens as undervalued?

Result: Fair Value of $27.90 (UNDERVALUED)

However, Old National Bancorp’s narrative could be tested if commercial real estate credit quality weakens or if its Midwest-focused footprint faces a softer regional economy.

Another View: What Old National Bancorp’s P/E Ratio Is Telling You

There is a twist when you look at Old National Bancorp through its P/E ratio. ONB trades at 13x earnings, above both the US Banks industry at 11.9x and its peer average of 11.7x, yet still below a 15.2x fair ratio that the market could potentially move toward.

This combination of richer pricing versus peers but a discount to the fair ratio suggests ONB may carry some valuation risk if sentiment cools, while also leaving some room for the multiple to close the gap if earnings quality holds up. Which side of that trade off do you think matters more today?

Next Steps

If the mixed signals around Old National Bancorp leave you undecided, use that as a prompt to act now and test the numbers yourself. A good starting point is to weigh the potential upside against the company's 4 key rewards

Looking For More Investment Ideas Beyond Old National Bancorp?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.