Conference spotlight and recent share performance

Onto Innovation (ONTO) is set to present at TD Cowen's 54th Annual Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on May 27, 2026, an event that has drawn fresh attention to the stock.

With the share price at US$258.24 at the last close and mixed short term returns, recent interest centers on how conference commentary might shape views on the business, valuation and overall company profile.

Onto Innovation's short term share price has eased, with a 1-month share price return of 11.84% and a 7-day share price return of 1.53% both down. At the same time, the 90-day share price return of 24.45% and 1-year total shareholder return of 178.40% point to momentum that conference commentary may either reinforce or challenge.

If this conference appearance has you thinking beyond a single stock, it could be a good moment to scan for other semiconductor related opportunities across 47 AI infrastructure stocks.

With Onto Innovation trading at US$258.24, recent returns are strong and analyst targets sit higher. The real question is whether the current valuation leaves upside on the table or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 32% Undervalued

At a last close of $258.24, the most followed narrative pegs Onto Innovation's fair value at $380, which frames the stock as trading at a sizeable discount.

Onto currently trades at a discount to larger semiconductor process-control peers such as KLA Corporation and Applied Materials despite potentially having stronger exposure to advanced AI packaging growth. Many investors believe the market still views Onto as a cyclical semiconductor equipment company rather than a strategic AI infrastructure provider.

To see what sits behind that higher fair value and peer comparison gap, including the growth, margins and future earnings assumptions that underpin it, the full narrative lays out the entire case in detail.

Result: Fair Value of $380 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this hinges on AI packaging demand and HBM capacity ramps arriving as expected, and on rivals like KLA not eroding Onto Innovation's position or pricing power.

Another Take: Valuation Tension From Earnings Multiples

The narrative fair value of $380 leans heavily on future earnings potential. On current numbers though, Onto Innovation trades on a P/E of 120.7x, well above the US Semiconductor industry at 66.9x, peers at 77.3x, and a fair ratio of 66.7x. That gap points to meaningful valuation risk if expectations ease. How comfortable are you paying this premium for the AI packaging story to play out?

Next Steps

The mix of optimism and caution around Onto Innovation is clear, so consider the data while it is current and weigh the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.