• In April 2026, Onto Innovation announced a collaboration with Rigaku Holdings to integrate its Ai Diffract software into Rigaku’s CD‑SAXS X‑ray platforms and agreed to buy a 27% stake in Rigaku for about US$710,000,000, with the X‑ray process control market estimated to exceed US$1.00 billion within five years.
• This move deepens Onto Innovation’s role in next‑generation semiconductor process control and creates new ways to link its Ai Diffract and OCD tools with X‑ray inspection for advanced logic and memory manufacturing.
• We’ll now examine how Onto Innovation’s deeper Rigaku partnership and X‑ray process control expansion could reshape its investment narrative.

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Onto Innovation Investment Narrative Recap

To own Onto Innovation, you need to believe in sustained demand for advanced process control in AI packaging and leading-edge nodes, with Dragonfly G5 and related platforms remaining critical to high value chip production. The Rigaku X ray partnership reinforces that thesis by extending Onto’s reach into X ray process control, but it does not remove the near term reliance on a rebound in customer capex or the risk that a few large AI and HBM customers delay spending.

The Rigaku deal also lands just after management raised Q1 2026 revenue guidance to about US$292 million and set Q2 at US$320 million to US$330 million, citing strength in advanced AI packaging. That guidance, together with expectations for Dragonfly G5 demand to grow more than 50% in 2026 versus 2025, underpins the current catalyst: proving that AI related tool demand can support higher revenue and margin levels without being derailed by cyclicality.

Yet even with Onto’s recent wins, investors should be aware that concentrated exposure to a handful of advanced packaging and AI customers could...

Onto Innovation's narrative projects $1.7 billion revenue and $428.9 million earnings by 2029.

Uncover how Onto Innovation's forecasts yield a $280.71 fair value, a 4% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the most optimistic analysts were already modeling revenue of about US$1.8 billion and earnings near US$710 million by 2029, so this Rigaku news may either reinforce that upside view or highlight how much it depends on continued tool adoption and software pull that not everyone will agree on.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Onto Innovation - why the stock might be worth as much as $280.71!

Form Your Own Verdict

Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

• A great starting point for your Onto Innovation research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Onto Innovation research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Onto Innovation's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.