OPEC+ members agreed to raise their collective oil‑production quotas from August even as crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain.  

Seven nations led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will add 188,000 barrels per day to their August output target, OPEC said Sunday. Ministers from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman approved the adjustment during virtual talks on Sunday.

"The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions," OPEC said. "They reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to increase."

The decision follows months of conflict‑driven disruption to Hormuz that pushed regional output to historic lows, forcing producers to build large inventories. The strait handles roughly a fifth of global oil flows and has remained a flashpoint between Washington and Tehran. 

The prospect of additional supply has revived concerns that a global oil surplus could emerge later this year. Producers could face falling prices and rising storage burdens as the quota increase takes effect. 

Under the new agreement, Saudi Arabia and Russia will each raise production by 62,000 barrels per day. Iraq will add 26,000 barrels per day, and Kuwait will increase output by 16,000 barrels per day, OPEC said. 

War Constrains Output Exports

The seven core members increased their quotas from April through July by nearly 800,000 barrels per day. Those increases did not translate into higher exports because shipping through Hormuz remained severely constrained. 

Shipments began to improve only after an interim peace deal between Washington and Tehran eased hostilities. This allowed Gulf producers to restart outbound flows. 

The conflict pushed OPEC’s production to decades‑low levels of 16.13 million barrels per day, according to Reuters. Production from the 11 OPEC members rebounded to 19.43 million barrels per day in June, rising 3.3 million barrels per day from May.

Crude prices have slumped nearly 43% from April highs as fears of prolonged Middle East conflict fade. Brent crude trades near $72 a barrel, returning to levels seen before the war began in February.

Producers Discounting Prices

Producers have been discounting crude heavily to clear inventories built during the shipping freeze, adding further pressure to prices. 

"Middle Eastern producers have built up such large inventories that they are now desperate to sell their oil," TotalEnergies SE Chief Executive Patrick Pouyanné said. "Producers are heavily discounting their crude, and prices are collapsing." 

OPEC+ reiterated that it will retain full flexibility regarding production. Analysts warn OPEC+ may soon choose between restraining production to support prices or competing aggressively for market share. 

The members "reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to increase, pause or reverse the phase-out of the voluntary production adjustments," OPEC said. 

Hormuz Passage Remains Uncertain

Gulf oil producers are betting the strait stays open to shipments as talks between the US and Iran progress. However, that reality is far from certain. 

About 30-60 vessels are crossing the strait each day, according to Kpler. Before the war, roughly 100–130 vessels transited Hormuz daily, Lloyd’s List Intelligence data show. Many current crossings are "dark," with ships switching off transponders, and several tanker owners remain unwilling to risk the route. 

Maritime intelligence firm Windward flagged fresh disruptions in Hormuz’s southern corridor on Saturday, recording two diversions and four turnarounds. Four outbound vessels then reversed course into the Gulf. 

Windward also detected recurring high‑speed small‑craft activity on Saturday. This is consistent with Iranian naval patrol patterns, it said. The activity reflects continued security friction in the southern corridor and has forced several vessels to hug Iranian waters or alter routes along the Omani coast.