Oshkosh Corporation (NYSE:OSK) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 4.6% to hit US$2.9b. Oshkosh reported statutory earnings per share (EPS) US$2.92, which was a notable 16% above what the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Oshkosh's 15 analysts is for revenues of US$11.2b in 2026. This reflects an okay 5.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 17% to US$10.50. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$11.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$10.80 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$167, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Oshkosh analyst has a price target of US$197 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$138. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Oshkosh's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 11% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 7.7% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.9% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Oshkosh is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Oshkosh. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$167, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Oshkosh. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Oshkosh going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Oshkosh's balance sheet, and whether we think Oshkosh is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.