Patria Investments (PAX) has wrapped up FY 2025 with fourth quarter revenue of US$133.2 million and basic EPS of US$0.22, while full year trailing twelve month revenue sits at US$381.7 million and EPS at US$0.54. Over the last few quarters, the company has seen revenue range from US$79.6 million to US$133.2 million and quarterly EPS move between US$0.08 and US$0.22. Trailing net income of US$85.7 million helps to frame the current US$12.04 share price against a 22.4% margin profile. With higher recent margins than a year ago and upbeat revenue and earnings forecasts, the latest print provides a basis for investors to consider how sustainable the current profitability may be.

See our full analysis for Patria Investments.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this earnings profile lines up with the prevailing community and market narratives around Patria Investments and where those stories may need updating.

Net margin holds at 22.4% on US$381.7m revenue base

• Over the last 12 months, Patria generated US$381.7 million of revenue with net income of US$85.7 million, which lines up with a 22.4% net margin compared with 19.2% a year earlier.
• Consensus narrative points to fundraising and fee earning AUM growth as key drivers, and the margin data partly backs that up but also shows where execution still matters:
  • Analysts expect revenue to grow about 11.7% per year and earnings about 27.5% per year, which assumes the current 22.4% margin can at least be maintained or improved as higher fee strategies scale.
  • At the same time, management guidance for a lower average fee rate, from 95 basis points to a range of 92 to 94 basis points, highlights the fee compression risk that could pressure margins if AUM mix or cost control does not offset it.

Quarterly EPS swings vs longer term growth forecasts

• Quarterly basic EPS moved from US$0.08 in Q2 FY 2025 to US$0.14 in Q3 and US$0.22 in Q4, while trailing 12 month EPS was US$0.54 at year end, giving a fuller picture than any single quarter.
• Bulls argue that rising allocations to private markets and Patria’s broader product set can support much higher earnings, and the current EPS pattern is one early piece of that story:
  • Bullish assumptions have revenue growing 14.8% annually and profit margins rising from 22.4% to 38.5% in three years, with earnings projected to reach US$222.0 million by about 2029, far above the current trailing US$85.7 million.
  • Those expectations also assume the company can scale fee related earnings, helped by permanent capital AUM of about US$9.1 billion and plans to grow fee related earnings to a range of US$260 to US$290 million in 2027, so investors will be watching whether quarterly EPS trends move toward that trajectory.

Have a look at how optimistic investors connect these margin and EPS trends to a much bigger long term opportunity: 🐂 Patria Investments Bull Case

Valuation, one off loss and the cautious view

• At a share price of US$12.04 and trailing EPS of about US$0.54, Patria trades on a P/E of 22.7x with a 22.4% net margin, and the last 12 months also include a one off loss of US$46.0 million plus a 4.98% dividend that is not fully covered by earnings.
• Bears focus on that mix of one off charges, dividend coverage and concentration risks, and the latest numbers give them several points to work with:
  • The trailing one off loss of US$46.0 million and a dividend that is not well covered by earnings both sit beside a five year earnings decline of about 2.2% per year, which contrasts with the stronger recent margin picture.
  • Even with these issues, the stock trades about 12.9% below the analyst fair value target of US$16.36 and below a DCF fair value of US$13.83, so skeptics are weighing those valuation gaps against concerns about Latin American concentration, acquisition integration and the reliance on future realizations to convert accrued performance fees into distributable earnings.

If you want to see how skeptics frame these same figures into a more cautious long term story, check out the 🐻 Patria Investments Bear Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Patria Investments on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

Mixed signals or early stage of a bigger story, either way it helps to see the full picture quickly and weigh the trade offs for yourself with 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

See What Else Is Out There

Patria’s mix of a 22.7x P/E, a one off loss of US$46.0 million and an uncovered 4.98% dividend highlights clear pressure on earnings quality and resilience.

If that mix of uncovered payouts and one off hits makes you uneasy, it is worth comparing with companies in the 72 resilient stocks with low risk scores that focus on steadier balance sheets and lower overall risk.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.