Shareholders might have noticed that Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited (NYSE:PLGO) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.8% to US$23.84 in the past week. Results overall were not great, with earnings of US$0.52 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit US$650m and were slightly better than forecasts. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Pelagos Insurance Capital after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Pelagos Insurance Capital's five analysts is for revenues of US$2.64b in 2026. This reflects a satisfactory 5.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 39% to US$2.96 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.64b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.79 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a large cut to EPS estimates.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$25.50, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Pelagos Insurance Capital analyst has a price target of US$29.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$21.50. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Pelagos Insurance Capital's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 10% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 12% annual growth over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 2.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that Pelagos Insurance Capital is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Pelagos Insurance Capital. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$25.50, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Pelagos Insurance Capital analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.