As you might know, Primoris Services Corporation (NYSE:PRIM) last week released its latest first-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with US$1.6b revenue coming in 9.8% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.32 missed the mark badly, arriving some 57% below what was expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Primoris Services' ten analysts is for revenues of US$7.65b in 2026. This would reflect a reasonable 2.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 8.1% to US$4.20 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$8.08b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.42 in 2026. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target fell 14% to US$150, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Primoris Services analyst has a price target of US$212 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$105. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Primoris Services' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 18% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Primoris Services.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Primoris Services. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Primoris Services going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Primoris Services , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.