Private markets entered 2026 in a cautious repricing phase, where steady company growth was no longer enough to support last year's valuation levels.

According to the latest Lincoln Private Market Index (LPMI) report, enterprise values of private U.S. companies fell 2.2% in the first quarter of 2026, even as earnings continued to climb.

The driver wasn't deteriorating fundamentals, but something more subtle: valuation multiples compressed across the market, reversing the steady optimism seen at the end of 2025. In other words, companies were still growing, but buyers were no longer willing to pay the same premium for that growth.

Lincoln's data shows a familiar split emerging again in private markets: operational performance remains broadly healthy — most companies are still posting revenue and EBITDA growth — but the "price of growth" is falling. The result is a market where the engine is running, but the transmission is slipping into a lower gear. 

That tension between fundamentals and pricing is exactly where secondary-market platforms such as Forge Global tend to pick up early signals.

Forge's recent private-market trading data has pointed in a similar direction: select late-stage private tech names have seen valuation markdown pressure, particularly in companies that previously traded at steep AI- or growth-driven premiums. Across its marketplace, liquidity remains active, but pricing dispersion has widened — meaning buyers and sellers are increasingly disagreeing on what "fair value" actually is.

Put together, Lincoln's index and Forge's secondary-market reports are telling the same story from two angles: private markets are transitioning from momentum pricing back toward fundamentals pricing.

The broader backdrop helps explain why.

Public markets have also been volatile, with enterprise values in major indices softening early in 2026 after AI-driven gains faded. That public-market recalibration has reduced the valuation anchor private companies often rely on when setting secondary pricing.

Yet there's no sign of a demand collapse.

Capital is still circulating — just more selectively. Private equity sponsors continue to transact, but they are increasingly choosing to recycle assets rather than aggressively mark them up, and secondary buyers are demanding more clarity on earnings durability rather than just growth trajectories.

The result is a market that feels less like a rush of capital and more like a negotiation.

Lincoln's index captures it in aggregate: modest earnings growth, but valuation contraction dragging total enterprise values lower. Forge's marketplace captures it in real time: price discovery is active, but no longer forgiving.

And together, they point to a single theme shaping early 2026: Private markets are still growing, but the era of easy multiple expansion is on pause.

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