Overview

• Fintech holding company's Q4 revenue fell 5.2% yr/yr, missing analyst expectations

• Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $61.5 mln, slightly down from last year

• Company's PROG Marketplace GMV nearly tripled, Four Technologies GMV up 126%

Outlook

• PROG Holdings expects full-year 2026 revenue between $3.02 bln and $3.14 bln

• Company projects Q1 2026 revenue from cont ops between $715 mln and $745 mln

• PROG Holdings anticipates full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA between $320 mln and $350 mln

Result Drivers

• CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT - CEO Steve Michaels cited a challenging retail environment and a large partner bankruptcy impacting Progressive Leasing

• PROG MARKETPLACE GROWTH - PROG Marketplace GMV nearly tripled during the quarter, driven by cross-sell and direct-to-consumer channels

• FOUR TECHNOLOGIES EXPANSION - Four Technologies achieved its ninth consecutive quarter of triple-digit GMV and revenue growth

Key Details

Metric	Beat/Miss	Actual	Consensus Estimate
Q4 Revenue	Miss	$574.60 mln	$585.40 mln (8 Analysts)
Q4 Net Earnings		$40.50 mln

Analyst Coverage

• The current average analyst rating on the shares is "buy" and the breakdown of recommendations is 6 "strong buy" or "buy", 2 "hold" and no "sell" or "strong sell"

• The average consensus recommendation for the financial technology (fintech) peer group is "buy"

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for PROG Holdings Inc is $39.00, about 15.1% above its February 17 closing price of $33.87

• The stock recently traded at 9 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 8 three months ago

Press Release: ID:nBw9wh4jma

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