Radian Group (RDN) opened 2026 with Q1 revenue of US$466.3 million and basic EPS of US$0.94, setting the tone for how its earnings story is evolving against a trailing twelve month backdrop of US$1.37 billion in revenue and EPS of US$4.34. Over recent quarters, the company has seen revenue move between US$292.7 million and US$318.1 million, while quarterly EPS has ranged from US$0.99 to US$1.16, giving investors a clear look at how the latest print fits into its recent track record. With margins still a key focus, this set of results puts profitability quality and sustainability at the center of the conversation for shareholders.

See our full analysis for Radian Group.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this earnings profile lines up with the prevailing narratives about Radian Group, highlighting where the data backs the story and where it raises new questions.

TTM net income near US$596 million despite Q1 softness

• On a trailing twelve month basis, Radian Group generated US$595.6 million of net income (excluding extra items), compared with US$129.5 million in Q1 2026 alone. This helps show how the quarter fits into the broader earnings run rate.
• Analysts' consensus view links this earnings profile to strong housing demand and data driven underwriting, yet the modest 0.8% annual earnings growth over the past five years means investors need to weigh:
  • How the current trailing net margin of 43.5% versus 46.3% a year earlier fits with the idea of expanding profitability over time.
  • Whether forecasts of about 8.85% annual earnings growth line up with recent net income levels between roughly US$567 million and US$660 million over the past few trailing periods.

Revenue trend vs forecasted 4.7% annual decline

• Q1 2026 revenue of US$466.3 million sits within a trailing twelve month total of about US$1.4b, compared with earlier trailing figures between roughly US$1.2b and US$1.3b. Investors can compare this with the expectation that revenue may decline about 4.7% per year over the next three years.
• Bears argue that heavy reliance on mortgage insurance and pressure on non core segments could weigh on that revenue line, and the reported figures give some context:
  • Earnings from discontinued operations have been negative in several recent quarters, including US$5.4 million in Q1 2026 and US$15.5 million in Q4 2024, which points to ongoing cleanup in parts of the business outside the core insurance engine.
  • Trailing net profit of US$595.6 million on US$1.4b of revenue shows the core is still profitable. The key bearish question is whether any slowdown in mortgage origination would quickly show up in that top line given the concentration in mortgage insurance.

On recent numbers like these, skeptics want to see how a mortgage dependent model holds up if volumes slow, while bulls point to the core profitability and still solid revenue base as a buffer, and both sides spell out their arguments in more detail in the 🐻 Radian Group Bear Case

P/E of 8.5x and DCF fair value gap

• With the stock at US$37.62 and trailing EPS of US$4.34, Radian Group trades on a P/E of about 8.5x. This sits close to peer levels of 8.6x and well below the US diversified financial industry average of 18.5x, alongside a DCF fair value of US$104.14 and an analyst price target of US$42.00.
• Supporters of the bullish narrative point to this valuation gap together with earnings forecasts, and the current data frame that discussion in a few important ways:
  • The difference between the US$37.62 share price and the US$104.14 DCF fair value estimate highlights how much upside some models see, while the relatively small gap versus the US$42.00 analyst target suggests analysts view the stock as closer to fairly valued on their assumptions.
  • At the same time, a 2.71% dividend yield that is not well covered by free cash flow and a trailing margin that has eased from 46.3% to 43.5% give bulls clear pressure points to watch, alongside any future shifts in the P/E relative to peers and the industry.

If you are weighing that mix of earnings power, margin trends, and the wide DCF fair value gap against today’s price, it helps to see how bullish investors connect these dots in the 🐂 Radian Group Bull Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Radian Group on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

Pulling all this together leaves a mixed picture, so it makes sense to review the numbers yourself and decide where you stand before the next move. To help frame that judgment, take a close look at the balance of risks and rewards by checking the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

See What Else Is Out There

Radian Group’s modest 0.8% long term earnings growth, easing margins, and dividend that is not well covered by free cash flow highlight some income reliability concerns.

If you want dividend income that looks more robust, it is worth checking companies in the 12 dividend fortresses so you can compare stronger yield support today.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.