It's been a sad week for Rapid Micro Biosystems, Inc. (NASDAQ:RPID), who've watched their investment drop 18% to US$1.69 in the week since the company reported its second-quarter result. Revenue of US$8.1m came in 2.3% ahead of expectations, although statutory earnings didn't fare nearly so well, recording a loss of US$0.27, a 11% miss. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Rapid Micro Biosystems' four analysts is for revenues of US$39.3m in 2026. This would reflect a meaningful 12% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to ameliorate slightly, reducing to US$0.94. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$39.3m and US$0.93 per share in losses.

As a result, it's unexpected to see that the consensus price target fell 17% to US$6.67, with the analysts seemingly becoming more concerned about ongoing losses, despite making no major changes to their forecasts. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Rapid Micro Biosystems, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$8.00 and the most bearish at US$5.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Rapid Micro Biosystems shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Rapid Micro Biosystems' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Rapid Micro Biosystems' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 25% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 12% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 6.9% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Rapid Micro Biosystems to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Rapid Micro Biosystems going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.